Transportation accounts for approximately 39 percent of Oregon's greenhouse gas emissions, making it the single largest emissions sector in the state. Electrifying the vehicle fleet is essential to meeting Oregon's target of reducing emissions 45 percent below 1990 levels by 2035. Governor Kotek's executive order calls for 250,000 registered electric vehicles in Oregon by 2025 and 50 percent of new vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2030.
TerraFuture's research team has analyzed EV registration data, charging infrastructure locations, and demographic patterns across the Portland metropolitan area to assess progress toward these goals and identify the structural barriers that are shaping who benefits from the electric vehicle transition.
Current Adoption Trends
As of March 2024, Oregon has approximately 98,000 registered battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, representing 2.4 percent of the state's total registered vehicle fleet. While year-over-year growth remains strong at 38 percent, the state would need to add approximately 152,000 EVs in the next 20 months to meet the 2025 target. That pace of adoption, roughly 7,600 new registrations per month, is more than double the current monthly average of 3,200.
Within the Portland metropolitan area, which accounts for 64 percent of the state's EV registrations, adoption rates vary dramatically by neighborhood. ZIP codes with median household incomes above 100,000 dollars have EV adoption rates of 6.8 percent, compared to 0.9 percent in ZIP codes with median incomes below 50,000 dollars. The gap is widening: high-income ZIP codes are adding EVs at 4.1 times the rate of low-income areas.
The Charging Infrastructure Gap
Our spatial analysis of the 1,847 public charging ports in the Portland metro area reveals significant geographic disparities. Neighborhoods in the top income quartile have an average of 14.2 public charging ports per 10,000 residents, compared to 3.1 ports per 10,000 residents in the bottom quartile.
The disparity is even more pronounced for Level 3 DC fast chargers, which provide 80 percent charge in 20 to 40 minutes. Of the 312 DC fast charging ports in the metro area, 71 percent are located in census tracts with median incomes above the regional median. Just 8 percent are in census tracts where the poverty rate exceeds 20 percent.
For the 58 percent of Portland residents who rent their housing, access to home charging is largely unavailable. Only 4 percent of multifamily buildings in the metro area have EV charging infrastructure. This is perhaps the single most significant barrier to equitable EV adoption.
If charging infrastructure follows the same patterns as EV adoption, we will build a clean transportation system that serves the same communities that already benefit most from the current one. That is not a climate solution. It is a subsidy for the privileged.
The Affordability Barrier
Despite declining costs, the average transaction price for a new electric vehicle in Oregon remains approximately 48,000 dollars, well above the average new vehicle price of 36,000 dollars and far beyond the reach of households in the bottom half of the income distribution. The used EV market is growing but remains limited, with an average used EV price of 28,000 dollars in the Portland market.
Federal tax credits of up to 7,500 dollars for new EVs and 4,000 dollars for used EVs help, but these credits are most accessible to higher-income households with tax liability sufficient to claim them. Oregon's Clean Vehicle Rebate of up to 5,000 dollars and the supplemental Charge Ahead rebate of 2,500 dollars for low-income buyers begin to address this gap, but awareness remains low. Our survey of 400 residents in low-income Portland neighborhoods found that only 18 percent were aware of the state rebate program.
Recommendations
Based on this analysis, TerraFuture is advocating for three policy interventions. First, require EV charging infrastructure in all new multifamily construction and create incentive programs for retrofitting existing apartment buildings, targeting 15 percent of multifamily units with charging access by 2028. Second, expand Oregon's point-of-sale rebate program and increase the income eligibility threshold to reach a larger share of middle-income households. Third, prioritize public charging infrastructure investment in low-income neighborhoods and communities of color, using the Environmental Justice Index as a siting guide.
The electric vehicle transition will either reduce transportation inequity or deepen it. The infrastructure and policy choices we make now will determine the outcome.
