The 1st of April is the conventional marker for peak Cascades snowpack. The data from the 121 SNOTEL stations across Oregon and Washington has now been finalized, and we have spent the past week working through what it suggests about summer water supply, wildfire risk, and the conditions the communities we work with will experience over the coming months.
The short version: aggregate snowpack is near the 30-year average, but the distribution within that average is unusual, and the implications are more concerning than the headline number suggests.
The Aggregate Numbers
Snow water equivalent (SWE) across all Cascades SNOTEL sites as of April 1, 2026, sits at 94 percent of the 1991–2020 median. On its face, that is a healthy number. It is substantially better than 2021 (71 percent), 2022 (89 percent), and dramatically better than 2015 (29 percent).
At higher elevations — above 5,500 feet — SWE is actually above median, at 108 percent. Mount Hood, Santiam Pass, and Stevens Pass all show healthy high-elevation snowpack heading into the melt season.
That is the good news.
Why the Aggregate Is Misleading
Three patterns in the underlying data complicate the picture.
Low-elevation snowpack is substantially below median. At SNOTEL sites below 4,000 feet, SWE is sitting at 61 percent of median. Several low-elevation sites recorded their lowest April 1 SWE in the 30-year record. This matters because low-elevation snowpack contributes disproportionately to early-summer streamflow, and its loss is both a near-term water supply problem and a long-term climate signal.
The elevation-dependent pattern is consistent with what climate models have been projecting for the Pacific Northwest for two decades. We are watching it play out in real data year over year.
The seasonal buildup was back-loaded. Through February, snowpack was tracking at about 75 percent of median. A strong March rescued the season, with storms concentrated in the second half of the month bringing significant high-elevation accumulation. Back-loaded seasons tend to produce less resilient snowpack — the snow that falls late in the season is denser, warmer at deposition, and more prone to rapid melt during spring heat events.
Soil moisture going into the melt is low. Across our monitoring network, March soil moisture in the top 20 inches is at the 18th percentile relative to the 2006–2025 record. When soil is dry at snowmelt, a larger share of melt water is absorbed into the soil profile rather than running into streams. That is good for late-summer forest health but reduces early-summer streamflow and groundwater recharge.
What This Likely Means for Summer
A few projections, with stated confidence levels.
Streamflow. We expect early-summer streamflow (May–June) to be near normal on major rivers fed by high-elevation basins and meaningfully below normal on smaller, low-elevation-dominated streams. By late summer, most basins are likely to trend toward 80 to 90 percent of median streamflow. Confidence: high for the overall pattern, moderate for specific basins.
Municipal water supply. Portland, Salem, and Bull Run system reservoirs should enter summer adequately supplied. Communities drawing from smaller watersheds — particularly in the southern Willamette Valley and Coast Range — face elevated risk of late-summer shortages. Confidence: moderate.
Agricultural water. Irrigation districts dependent on snowpack-fed rivers should have reasonable early-season supply. Districts with smaller storage or dependence on low-elevation tributaries should plan for potential curtailments in August and September. Confidence: moderate.
Wildfire risk. This is where the combined signal is most concerning. Low-elevation dryness, low soil moisture, and the likelihood of an extended summer dry period combine into elevated fire potential, particularly in mid-to-low elevation forests. We concur with the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center's above-normal outlook for 2026. Confidence: high that the fuel conditions are primed, moderate on whether specific fire events will occur.
Indigenous Knowledge in the Outlook
Our research team works closely with the natural resources departments of the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs, the Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde, and the Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians. Their traditional ecological knowledge of this landscape extends deeper in time than any instrumental record, and their ongoing observations have repeatedly identified patterns our satellite and SNOTEL data miss.
Several tribal biologists have flagged concerns this spring about first foods timing. Camas blooming is running approximately 11 days earlier than the 30-year average across multiple sites, consistent with warmer March air temperatures. This is consistent with our snowpack data and reinforces the signal of an early, fast melt season.
What Communities Can Do
For readers who operate water systems, manage land, or are planning summer operations, a few practical implications.
Small-system operators: If you run a system with fewer than 10,000 connections drawing from surface water or shallow groundwater, now is the time to model late-summer supply scenarios and communicate early with customers about conservation expectations. Waiting until July to issue drought advisories reduces compliance and erodes trust.
Land managers: Fuel treatment timing matters this year. Prescribed fire windows have been narrowing, and a mild April followed by an early summer warm-up could compress the window further. Treatments completed before May 15 will do more work than treatments deferred.
Urban residents: The relationship between Cascades snowpack and what you see coming out of your tap is more direct than most people realize. Water conservation in low-snow years has measurable effects on reservoir levels going into fall. If you are in a water district with voluntary restrictions, they are doing real work.
What We Are Watching Next
Three signals we are tracking through the melt season.
Rate of melt. A fast melt produces high early streamflow followed by an early low. A slow, cool melt does the opposite. The weather pattern through the next six weeks will shape which of these scenarios materializes.
Late-spring precipitation. A wet May can partly compensate for a marginal snowpack by keeping soils moist and forest fuels elevated in moisture content. A dry May, especially paired with early heat, would accelerate toward a concerning summer scenario.
Lightning activity in June. In our region, the wildfire ignition profile depends heavily on dry lightning in the first half of summer. Our research team is working with state meteorologists to track this in near-real-time, and our community partners will receive alerts if conditions warrant.
Where to Find More
Our snowpack and streamflow dashboard on the Data page updates daily through the melt season. The full 2026 water year briefing, with basin-level detail, will be released in early May.
As always, the data is only useful to the degree that it reaches the people making decisions on the ground. If you or your organization would benefit from a briefing on what this year's outlook means for a specific community, system, or program, please be in touch. We are glad to share what we are seeing.
