TerraFuture's Youth Climate Fellows program places high school juniors and seniors in six-month research apprenticeships, pairing them with our professional staff to conduct original research on climate and environmental issues. This year's cohort of eight fellows chose to investigate transit equity in Portland, and their resulting policy brief, submitted to the TriMet Board of Directors and the Portland City Council, demonstrates the kind of rigorous, data-driven analysis that defines our youth programs.
The brief is entirely the fellows' own work. Our role was to provide mentorship, access to data, and feedback on methodology. The conclusions and recommendations are theirs.
The Research Question
The fellows began with a straightforward question: who pays for public transit in Portland, and who benefits? Their investigation quickly revealed that the answer involves significant inequity.
Using TriMet ridership data, American Community Survey microdata, and original survey research, the fellows documented that Portland's lowest-income households spend an average of 4.8 percent of their monthly income on transit fares, compared to 0.3 percent for households earning above the regional median. This makes transit fares effectively a regressive tax on mobility, with the greatest burden falling on those least able to afford it.
The fellows surveyed 200 transit-dependent residents across four Portland neighborhoods, finding that 34 percent reported skipping trips due to fare costs, including trips to medical appointments, grocery stores, and job interviews. Among respondents under 18, 41 percent reported that fare costs limited their ability to participate in after-school activities and employment.
The Climate Connection
The fellows did not treat transit equity as separate from climate action. Their analysis connects the two directly.
Portland's transportation sector produces approximately 3.8 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent annually, with single-occupancy vehicles accounting for 72 percent of that total. Every trip shifted from personal vehicle to public transit reduces emissions by an average of 4.3 kilograms of CO2 per trip, based on TriMet's current fleet emissions profile.
The fellows modeled the ridership impact of fare-free transit using elasticity estimates from academic literature and case studies from cities that have implemented similar policies, including Kansas City, Olympia, and Tallinn, Estonia. Their conservative estimate projects a 12 to 18 percent increase in ridership under fare-free service, translating to approximately 8.4 million additional annual trips and a net reduction of 36,100 metric tons of CO2, or roughly 4.2 percent of Portland's transportation emissions.
These fellows are not waiting until they can vote to participate in democracy. They are producing research that holds up to professional scrutiny and submitting it to the decision-makers who need to see it.
The Policy Proposal
The brief proposes a three-year fare-free transit pilot funded through a combination of existing revenue sources. TriMet's annual fare revenue is approximately 131 million dollars, representing 22 percent of the agency's operating budget. The fellows identified potential replacement funding from Oregon's Climate Protection Program auction proceeds, which generated 178 million dollars in 2023, and from the Portland Clean Energy Community Benefits Fund, which has distributed only 64 percent of its available funds since inception.
Their analysis also accounts for cost savings from eliminating fare collection infrastructure, estimated at 18 million dollars annually, and from reduced fare enforcement costs of approximately 4.6 million dollars per year.
Reception and Impact
The policy brief was presented to TriMet's Citizens Advisory Committee in July, where it received substantive engagement from committee members. Two TriMet board members have since requested meetings with the fellows to discuss their findings. The Portland Mercury and Street Roots both covered the presentation.
More importantly, the process itself transformed these eight young people. Post-program assessments show significant gains in research methodology skills, data analysis competency, and civic engagement confidence. All eight fellows reported that the program changed their understanding of how policy decisions are made and their belief in their ability to influence those decisions.
TerraFuture will continue the Youth Climate Fellows program with a new cohort beginning in September 2024, focused on a research topic to be selected by the incoming fellows themselves.
