Food insecurity in Portland affects approximately 1 in 8 households, with rates reaching 1 in 4 in neighborhoods with the highest poverty concentrations. At the same time, the Portland metropolitan area contains approximately 1,200 acres of vacant, tax-delinquent, or underutilized land that satellite imagery and soil testing indicate is suitable for food production. These two facts represent an opportunity that TerraFuture has spent the past year quantifying.
Our Urban Agriculture Potential Assessment combines geospatial analysis, soil quality data, food access mapping, and production modeling to answer a specific question: how much of Portland's food security gap could urban farming close, and what would it take?
Mapping the Opportunity
Using a combination of Multnomah County tax lot data, USDA soil survey information, and our own ground-truth soil sampling at 86 sites, we identified 1,247 acres of land within Portland's urban growth boundary that meets three criteria: currently vacant or significantly underutilized, soil contamination levels below EPA residential screening levels for urban agriculture, and adequate sunlight defined as a minimum of 6 hours of direct sun during the growing season.
These parcels range from 0.1-acre residential lots to 12-acre former industrial sites. They are concentrated in North Portland, East Portland, and the Lents neighborhood, areas that also have the highest rates of food insecurity and the lowest density of grocery stores.
The overlap is not coincidental. Disinvestment simultaneously creates vacant land and food access deserts. Urban farming addresses both symptoms of the same structural problem.
Production Modeling
Based on production data from our existing community garden network and three established urban farms in Portland, we modeled expected yields under three management scenarios.
A community garden model, with intensive volunteer management and diverse crop production, yields an average of 0.8 pounds of produce per square foot per growing season. A market farm model, with professional management and commercial crop selection, yields approximately 1.4 pounds per square foot. A season-extended model, using hoop houses and cold frames to extend production into fall and winter, yields approximately 1.9 pounds per square foot over a 10-month growing season.
If 30 percent of the identified suitable land, roughly 374 acres, were activated under a mixed model averaging 1.1 pounds per square foot, the total annual production would be approximately 17.9 million pounds of fresh produce. Based on USDA recommended vegetable consumption of 1.9 cups per day per person, this production could meet approximately 8 percent of Portland's total fresh vegetable demand, or the equivalent of full vegetable supply for 26,400 households.
Land is not the constraint. Knowledge, infrastructure, and political will are the constraints. The land is sitting there, and the people who need what it could grow are living right next to it.
The Infrastructure Gap
Converting vacant land to productive farmland requires investment. Based on costs from our existing farm development projects, the average per-acre establishment cost for urban agriculture ranges from 18,000 dollars for a basic community garden to 65,000 dollars for a fully equipped market farm with irrigation, fencing, soil amendments, tool storage, and seasonal extension structures.
Activating 374 acres under a mixed model would require an estimated capital investment of 14.2 million dollars spread over five years. Annual operating costs, including labor, inputs, and site maintenance, would be approximately 3.8 million dollars. Against this, the production would have a wholesale value of approximately 8.9 million dollars and a retail value of approximately 14.3 million dollars.
The economics are viable if two conditions are met: secure land tenure through long-term leases or community land trusts, and institutional support for the first three years while farms reach productive capacity.
Equity-Centered Implementation
TerraFuture is proposing an Urban Agriculture Equity Initiative that prioritizes farm establishment in the 15 neighborhoods with the highest food insecurity rates. We are working with the Portland Housing Bureau and Prosper Portland to identify publicly owned parcels suitable for long-term agricultural leases, and with community land trusts to secure permanent affordability for farming on privately held sites.
Our model requires that at least 40 percent of production from initiative farms be distributed through non-market channels including food banks, community supported agriculture shares subsidized for low-income households, and free farm stands at community sites.
We are also investing in farmer training, with our Green Workforce Pipeline program adding an urban agriculture track in 2025 that will graduate 30 new farmers annually, with priority enrollment for residents of food-insecure neighborhoods.
The data shows that urban farming cannot replace the conventional food system. But it can meaningfully supplement it, particularly for fresh produce, in the neighborhoods where the need is greatest.
